\input{SlideHeaders} \input{macros} \input{macrosIS} %\overlays{3}{ % \begin{slide}{Research questions} % \begin{itemstep} % \end{itemstep} %\end{slide}} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \title{Nipping It in the Bud: A Tale of Two Weeds and the Decision to Manage Them} \author{J. Thacher, J. Chermak, K. Grimsrud, K. Krause} \email{jthacher@unm.edu} \institution{University of New Mexico \addfig{.4}{graphics/PREISM}{-.5}{-3} } %Picture of YST and RK %\input{graphics/1316001} %\input{graphics/RK/1459261} % 2 exs of IAW \slideCaption{Southern Economic Association 2008} \Logo(10.3,-0.75){\includegraphics[scale=0.1]{LogoOnly}} \begin{document} \maketitle %Hello. My name is Jennifer Thacher and today I'm going to % be presenting a paper entitled: ...'. This is joint work % some colleagues at UNM: Janie Chermak, Kristine Grimsrud (who % is also here today) and Kate Krause. %This work is partly funded by the USDA PREISM program. % This paper is part of a larger project that focuses on neighbor % effects in the spread and management of alien invasive weeds. % Alien invasive weeds are non-native weeds that have a significant % ability to spread and out-compete native plants. % The paper that I'm going to present today focuses on the factors that affect management decisions. % I'm going to start out today by giving you a little background on the two weeds % on which our project focuses, \YST and \RK. As I hope you will see in the % presentation, IAW have a tremendous impact on agriculture and the native % environment. % Then I'm going to tell you about some % preliminary results from % a choice-question survey that we conducted with NM ranchers. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{They all look so innocent when they're young...} \addfig{.90}{graphics/YS/1350006}{5.5}{0.25} \citepic{http://invasive.org} \end{slide} % This is a picture of YST. Like many IAW, they look inncocnent when they're % young. THey are easy to manage but difficult to identify. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{but at a certain age they get prickley} \addfig{.90}{graphics/YS/1350012}{5.5}{0.25} \citepic{http://invasive.org} \end{slide} % YST has long spines. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{and hard to manage} \addfig{.90}{graphics/YS/1459659}{5.5}{0.25} \citepic{http://invasive.org} \end{slide} % YST forms very dense stands. I'd be very unhappy about having to deal with % this type of mess on my land -- imagine on a large ranch. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \overlays{6}{ \begin{slide}{IAW have significant impacts} \onlySlide*{1} { \addfig{.90}{graphics/YS/1459652}{5.5}{0.25} \picinfo{\YST infestation} \citepic{http://invasive.org} %or \input{graphics/1459657} % When not managed, they take over large areeas } \onlySlide*{2} { \addfig{.90}{graphics/RK/1459260}{5.5}{0.25} \picinfo{\RK infestation} \citepic{http://invasive.org} %or \input{graphics/1459657} %or \input{graphics/1459657} % So too does RK } \onlySlide*{3} { \addfig{.90}{graphics/1459668}{5.5}{0.25} % This is important because an infestation can \picinfo{Reduces quality and quantity of crops and pasture crops} \citepic{http://invasive.org} %or \input{graphics/1459657} % IAW compete with crop and forage plants for nutrients and water % Land becomes much less productive % Reduces grazing -- cattle will avoid them % Some are toxic to horses and/or cattle %\item Contributes to soil erosion %\ei } \onlySlide*{4} { \addfig{.90}{graphics/1624054}{5.5}{0.25} \picinfo{Crowds out other native plants} \citepic{http://invasive.org} %or \input{graphics/1459657} %There is a whole host of impacts on natural ecosystems. For example, % they crowd out other native plants. Our focus is on ranching, so we % will focus on the impact on forage plants. } \onlySlide*{5} { \bi \item Costs US agriculture \$27 billion annually \bi \item Crop losses: \$24 billion \item Herbicide treatments: \$3 billion \ei \item Economic loss of forage crops $\approx$ \$1 billion \bi \item 10\% of annual production value \item Ranchers spend about \$5 billion to control IAW in pastures and rangeland \ei \ei \small{(Pimentel et al., 1993, 1995)} } \onlySlide*{6} { \addfig{.90}{graphics/Other/WeedSpread}{5.5}{-.5} } \end{slide} } %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \overlays{3}{ \begin{slide}{Why are IAW so successful?} \fromSlide*{1} { \addfig{.45}{graphics/YS/1350013}{0}{0.25} % One reason why IAW are so successful is that they have certain features % that allow them to successfully compete with native species. For example, % one way that YST spreads is through seed dispersal. What is unique is % that these seeds can survive, latent in the soil, for up to 10 years. %\YST: seed disperal } \fromSlide*{2} { \addfig{.5}{graphics/YS/1350016}{0}{-2.8} %\YST: seed disperal %seedbanks % Number on how long seeds can last } \onlySlide*{3} { \addfig{.45}{graphics/RK/5360182}{6}{2.4} \citepic{http://invasive.org} %or \input{graphics/1459657} %RK has a root that can grow up to XX feet long, allowing it to % out-compete other plants for access to water. } \end{slide} } %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %\begin{slide}{The human element: if and when to manage} %Human dispersal\input{graphics/1624057} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Research Questions} \bi \item What factors affect decisions to manage invasive weeds? \item Are neighbor effects important? \item How do local infestation levels affect management decisions? \item Are all weeds the same? \ei \end{slide} % As I mentioned at the beginning, we're interested in the human component % of IAW %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Choice-question survey of NM ranchers} \addfig{.45}{graphics/maps/RussianKnapweed}{0}{.3} \addfig{.45}{graphics/maps/YellowStarthistle}{6}{1.3} \citepic{http://nmsu.weeds.edu} %\addfig{.45}{graphics/1350013}{0}{0.25} % US and NM distribution % Two important weeds in US % Relatively small foothold in state (but differ) % Cattle industry important in state \end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Data Collection} \bi \item Population of interest: New Mexican ranchers \item Mixed-mode survey with 6 contacts \ei \begin{table}[tbh!] \begin{center} \begin{tabular}{lll} Sample & Number\\ \hline Inspection data& 1848 \\ Brand book & 772 \\% 9 counties Total& 2590 \\\\ Responding& Number \\ \hline Total & 1003 \\ Ranchers & 712 \\ \end{tabular} \end{center} \end{table} \begin{center} $\to$ 31\% response rate \end{center} \end{slide} %The survey consisted of $46$ questions, took approximately $20$ minutes to %complete, and consisted of four sections.\footnote{The %survey instruments can be found at \url{http://economics.thacher}.} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Choice question survey} \input{FigureExCE} \end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Attributes and levels} \input{TableDesign} \end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \overlays{3}{ \begin{slide}{Random Utility Model} Branded: %Branded, linear, main-effects design \onlySlide*{1} { %Branded utility \begin{eqnarray*} V_{RK} &=& \alpha_{RK}\\ && + \beta_{1RK} InfestHvy_{RK} + \beta_{2RK} InfestMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{3RK}Othr_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{4RK} SprdHi_{RK} + \beta_{5RK} SprdMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{6RK} CCN_{RK} + \beta_{y} Cost_{RK} \\ V_{YS} &=& \beta_{1YS} InfestHvy_{YS} + \beta_{2YS} InfestMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{3YS}Othr_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{4YS} SprdHi_{YS} + \beta_{5YS} SprdMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{6YS} CCN_{YS} + \beta_{y} Cost_{YS} \end{eqnarray*} } \onlySlide*{2} { \begin{eqnarray*} V_{RK} &=& \alpha_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{\red{1RK}} InfestHvy_{RK} + \beta_{\red{2RK}} InfestMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{\red{3RK}}Othr_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{\red{4RK}} SprdHi_{RK} + \beta_{\red{5RK}} SprdMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{\red{6RK}} CCN_{RK} + \beta_{y} Cost_{RK} \\ V_{YS} &=& \beta_{\red{1YS}} InfestHvy_{YS} + \beta_{\red{2YS}} InfestMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{\red{3YS}}Othr_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{\red{4YS}} SprdHi_{YS} + \beta_{\red{5YS}} SprdMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{\red{6YS}} CCN_{YS} + \beta_{y} Cost_{YS} \end{eqnarray*} } \onlySlide*{3} { \begin{eqnarray*} V_{RK} &=& \red{\alpha_{RK}}\\ && + \beta_{1RK} InfestHvy_{RK} + \beta_{2RK} InfestMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{3RK}Othr_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{4RK} SprdHi_{RK} + \beta_{5RK} SprdMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{6RK} CCN_{RK} + \beta_{y} Cost_{RK} \\ V_{YS} &=& \beta_{1YS} InfestHvy_{YS} + \beta_{2YS} InfestMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{3YS}Othr_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{4YS} SprdHi_{YS} + \beta_{5YS} SprdMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{6YS} CCN_{YS} + \beta_{y} Cost_{YS} \end{eqnarray*} } \end{slide} } %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Random Utility Model} Unbranded: $\beta_{1} = \beta_{1RK} = \beta_{1YS}, ....$ \begin{eqnarray*} V_{RK} &=& \alpha_{RK}\\ && + \beta_{1} InfestHvy_{RK} + \beta_{2} InfestMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{3}Othr_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{4} SprdHi_{RK} + \beta_{5} SprdMed_{RK} \\ && + \beta_{6} CCN_{RK} + \beta_{y} Cost_{RK} \\ V_{YS} &=& \alpha_{YS}\\ && + \beta_{1} InfestHvy_{YS} + \beta_{2} InfestMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{3}Othr_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{4} SprdHi_{YS} + \beta_{5} SprdMed_{YS} \\ && + \beta_{6} CCN_{YS} + \beta_{y} Cost_{YS} \end{eqnarray*} \end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \overlays{3}{ \begin{slide}{Random Utility Model} \onlySlide*{1} { Neither and both alternatives: \beq V_{Neither} = \alpha_{N} \eeq \beq V_{Both} = \alpha_{B} \eeq } \fromSlide*{2} { Assume logit probabilities } \fromSlide*{3} { \begin{equation*} L = \prod_{i=1}^{712}\prod_{j=1}^{4} (P_{ijRK})^{y_{ijRK}} (P_{ijYS})^{y_{ijYS}} (P_{ijN})^{y_{ijN}} (P_{ijB})^{y_{ijB}} \end{equation*} } \end{slide} } %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Descriptive Statistics} \input{TableChoices} $\to$ Examine results for RK/YS choices and all data \end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Results} \bi \item Once allow for ASC, no difference between branded and unbranded models \item Results fairly robust to different types of data \ei \end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \overlays{8}{ \begin{slide}{Summary} \onlySlide*{1} { \input{TableUnbranded} } \onlySlide*{2} { \input{TableUnbranded2} } \onlySlide*{3} { \input{TableUnbranded3} %Consistent with other evidence in survey: \small{Neighbors increased efforts $\to$ 54\% of ranchers would increase efforts} } \onlySlide*{4} { \input{TableUnbranded4} } \onlySlide*{5} { \input{TableUnbranded5} } \onlySlide*{6} { \input{TableUnbranded6} } \onlySlide*{7} { \input{TableUnbranded7} } \onlySlide*{8} { \input{TableUnbrandedRKYS} } \end{slide} } %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{slide}{Extensions} \bi \item More examination of modeling both \item Heterogeneity \ei \end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %\begin{slide}{It was Mrs Peacock with a candlestick....} %main results %\end{slide} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \end{document}